A title price has to equal the chance of winning every remaining match. Fitting Bradley–Terry
strengths to Kalshi's own semi-final prices pins down each half of the draw; the one free parameter linking the
halves is chosen to fit the futures. Whatever is left over is the market disagreeing with itself.
Exact-set-score coherence
Every possible score line for both players is one exhaustive partition: the set must sum to 1, and
each player's lines must sum to their match-winner price. Sweep is what buying all outcomes at the ask
costs — under 100% it is a genuine lock, and the fee toggle decides whether it survives. Treat any gap next to a
wide spread as an artefact of the quote rather than a signal.
Match board
Every live head-to-head. Fair here is Kalshi's own two-way price with the spread removed —
it is the market's opinion, not an independent one, so there is no edge column. These rows are for finding where
the liquidity and the tight quotes are.